American Express Preview & Early Betting Thoughts
The PGA Tour heads to La Quinta, California this week for the American Express. This tournament is played on a three course rotation with the cut coming after the third round. Each player will play La Quinta Country Club, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the PGA West Stadium Course during the first three rounds, with the final round being played at the Stadium Course. The three course rotation, low scoring averages, and the pro-am aspect make this event one of the more unique tournaments to bet on throughout the PGA Tour schedule.
Tournament Overview
Courses: La Quinta Country Club, Nicklaus Tournament Course, PGA West Stadium Course
Defending Champion: Sepp Straka (-25)
The American Express is a birdie fest, with winning scores typically ending up in the mid 20s under par. All three courses average well under par, but the Stadium Course at PGA West is generally the more difficult of the three, mainly due to the tougher Sunday setup once the pro-am is over.
Elite drivers who can push the ball further down the fairway are able to give themselves more wedges in and maximize scoring chances. Players who can score with their wedges and get hot with the putter will be able to separate themselves at all three courses this week.
How The Courses Play
PGA West Stadium Course — PGA West was built with the idea of creating TPC Sawgrass in the west. It shares many resemblances, including water hazards and a stadium style feel down the stretch. The par 5s at this course actually play surprisingly hard given the low winning scores, so most of the scoring on the Stadium Course is done on the par 4s. Above average drivers can separate here by keeping the ball out of the water while pushing the ball further down to leave shorter approach shots in. The approach shots here vary, with a slight emphasis on scoring inside of 125 yards. While most of the scoring is done on the other two courses, the last four winners have averaged 5.5 under par per round at the Stadium Course during their wins, beating the field average by nearly 3.5 shots per round. While it is normally the hardest of the three based on the setup, the Stadium Course is normally one of the 10 easiest course on Tour, so expect whoever wins this week to shoot in the mid to low 60s here this week.
La Quinta Country Club — This course measures out at just over 7,000 yards, making it one of the shortest on the PGA Tour. Great total drivers and wedge players can do a lot of scoring here. The four reachable par 5s and plenty of short approach shots have made this course consistently rate out as one of the five easiest courses on Tour. The past four winners of this event have average 7.5 shots under par at La Quinta during their win, and Nick Dunlap was able to shoot a 60 (-12) here when he won in 2024. While there’s no strokes gained data for here or the Nicklaus Stadium Course, being a great all around ball striker and wedge player who can make a lot of birdies is the type of player that can go low at La Quinta.
Nicklaus Tournament Course — The Nicklaus Tournament Course, like La Quinta CC, has been one of the five easiest courses on Tour over the last 10 years. This course has a little bit more water than La Quinta, but with four reachable par 5s and plenty of short wedges into approach shots allow players to take advantage of the Nicklaus Course. The last four winners have also averaged 7.5 shots under par here during their win. Players who put themselves in contention at this event need to be shooting in the mid to low 60s at both La Quinta and the Nicklaus Tournament Course to do so.
Key Stats
Putts per Green in Regulation — In a tournament where the winning score is probably going to be somewhere in the mid to high 20s under par, you need to pick players that can fill it up and make a lot of birdies. 7 of the last 10 winners of the American Express were top 10 in this stat the week of their win. In a birdie fest like this you have to be able to make putts and take advantage of as many birdie chances as possible to contend.
SG APP — Similarly to the putting stat, 7 of the last 10 winners have been top 10 strokes gained on approach during their victory. The Stadium Course has a pretty balanced distribution of approach shots, so players will need to be solid throughout their entire bag. However, La Quinta and the Nicklaus Tournament Course are more wedge heavy, so players so excel between 100-150 yards can really take advantage there.
Total Driving — While this tournament doesn’t really favor distance or accuracy, one trend I’ve noticed is that most of the recent winners and players that have historically done well here have been elite at either distance or accuracy. Sepp Straka, the 2025 winner, elite accuracy off the tee. Nick Dunlap in 2024, elite distance. Jon Rahm in 2018 and 2023. The Stadium Course has a lot of water in play so great drivers of the ball being able to avoid penalty strokes off the tee in a birdie fest is a big advantage.
Winning Player Archetypes
The things that I’ll be looking for this week are pretty simple given the fact that this is a birdie fest and we only get strokes gained data from one of the three courses. I want to target players who are solid at scoring with their wedges, are at least above average at either distance or accuracy off the tee, and not a complete disaster on the greens. They need to have at least showed the ability to have a good week putting.
Since this is event is a pro-am during the first three rounds, the setup is generally easier to cater towards the amateurs, with a lot of pins in the middle of greens where players can easily go right at them. It’s not a dealbreaker for me, but it’s definitely a plus if I see a player that is consistently playing well at other easier courses. When I hit on Sepp Straka at 60/1 here last year, part of my reasoning, along with his elite accuracy and wedges, was his prior win at the John Deere Classic at -21, proving he could go low enough to win the American Express.
Comp Courses
TPC Scottsdale (Waste Management Open) — PGA West shares similarities to many desert golf courses and the Waste Management was one that stood out with the most leaderboard crossover. Phil Mickelson has two wins at TPC Scottsdale and a win and four top 5s at the American Express. Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, and Charley Hoffman also all have multiple top 5s at both tournaments. Both courses are similar in length and while PGA West has more approach shots from under 100 yards, both courses test the golfer on all kinds of approach shots throughout their bag.
TPC Sawgrass (Players Championship) — Designed as the “Sawgrass of the west,” PGA West naturally shares similarities with TPC Sawgrass. Both feature similar proximity buckets on approach shots and significant water hazards. While Sawgrass is much harder and features far better fields, these courses provide similar challenges. Si Woo Kim and Phil Mickelson have won at both events, and numerous other players have had multiple top 10s at each course.
Sea Island Seaside Course (RSM Classic) — The Seaside Course at Sea Island is another short course that has a lot of water in play. Like the Stadium Course, Sea Island challenges players with approach shots from all kinds of distances, but has an emphasis on wedge play and scoring from inside 100 yards. Si Woo Kim and Brian Harman have top 5s at both courses.
Historical Notes
The winning scores at the American Express have been mainly in the mid 20s under par since the tournament began using the Stadium Course as its main host in 2016. In most years, the wind and weather is a non factor and that plays a part in the easy scoring conditions. In 2017, Hudson Swafford won at -20 and that was the only year since 2016 that saw any sort of windy conditions. More of the same can be expected this year, with typical easy scoring conditions expected all week.
This tournament definitely favors a certain type of golfer, and that is one that is comfortable going low and playing in birdie fests. Players that have had recent success here such as Sepp Straka, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, or Patrick Cantlay have all had other success at short easier tournaments such as John Deere or Travelers. All of these players, as well as Jon Rahm who has won twice here, have either elite distance or accuracy off the tee and are elite on approach from inside 150 yards. The combination of these skills and the comfortability they have shooting in the low 60s is why they have continued success here.
Early Betting Thoughts
This week I’ll be looking for players who have shown me they can get hot with the putter and have at least gotten close to -20 in a tournament before. Of all weeks, this isn’t the one to bet on guys who haven’t proved that they can have a big week putting. I’ll also be focusing on golfers who are strong with their wedges, as scoring from inside 125 yards is going to be important at all three courses. Being elite at either distance or accuracy off the tee is something I’ll look at as well, I want my golfers to be in the fairway as often as possible to maximize scoring chances.
The field is stronger than normal and there’s a lot of names that pop out at first glance. I’ll be curious to see where the odds end up on higher end guys like Sam Burns, Robert MacIntyre, and Akshay Bhatia, and then players such as Michael Brennan, Max Greyserman, Wyndham Clark, Davis Thompson, and Michael Thorbjornsen a little further down the board.
The full outright card with golfer breakdowns will be posted Wednesday.